The China Wine Syndrome

I've never tasted Chinese wine, but that's going to change quite soon. I have two bottles, both hand-carried from China by my former student Brian West. One is a 1999 Cabernet Sauvignon from China's oldest winery, Changyu (founded in 1892). The other is a 2003 Tasya's Reserve Cabernet Franc from what many people say is China's best winery, Grace Vineyard (or Shanxi Grace Vineyard to differentiate it from a Japanese winery with the same name -- Shanxi is the region of China where Grace Vineyard is located).

I have heard a lot of stories about Chinese wine -- about how bad it is, how prestige-seeking Shanghai yuppies mix expensive first growth Bordeaux with Coca Cola and of vast vineyards in China that threaten to flood world markets with cheap wine (as Chinese exports have flooded some other markets already). The prospect of drinking Chinese wine for the first time gave me an incentive to see what I could find out about the Chinese wine industry and market. Here is a brief account of what I have learned.

Wine has a long history in China, reaching back more than 2000 years to the first wine imported from Ferghana in what is now Uzbekistan. It wasn't until the 19th century, however, that more than a trickle of wine was produced or consumed. Western missionaries brought grapes and wine to China along with their bibles (as they did in California, Argentina and Chile). The real roots of today's industry were planted in the late 1800s, however, when Changyu and other wineries were founded, mainly to produce wines for the foreign communities in the commercial centers.

The communist government expanded wine production after the 1949 revolution. Wine was promoted as a form of alcohol made from abundant fruit sources (grapes, both vitis and indigenous Asian varieties, and other fruits) in order to reduce use of precious food grains for alcohol production. Wine was meant to replace beer or grain spirits in the diet. Wine was typically made from a combination of grapes and other fruits. I understand that it is still sometimes necessary to specify grape wine in China, since generic wine may be made out of any number of fruits. It is probably not surprising that Chinese who were brought up on these mixed-fruit wines might today mix dry grape wine with fruit juice or Coke to get a more familiar flavor.

China's vineyards are indeed vast, totaling six percent of the world total. There are 453,000 hectares of vineyards in China, which is roughly equal to the U.S. (380,000 hectares) plus Germany (98,000 hectares) or just over the half the vineyard area of France, the world leader. But 80 percent of the grapes are grown as fruit for the table grape market. About 10 percent of the grapes are dried to make raisins. The remaining 10 percent are wine grapes. China's wine production is relatively small -- 730 million liters compared to 2,546 million liters for the U.S. and 898 million liters for Germany. China produces about as much wine as Moldova and Romania combined -- a lot of wine, but still just 2.6 percent of the global total.

Comparative wine production statistics for China are a bit problematic because (1) much of the wine produced is not pure grape wine but may be mixed fruit wine and (2) the rules on what can be labeled Chinese wine are quite lax. Grape wine needs to be only 50% grape and Chinese wine needs to be only 50% from Chinese-produced juice, according to one report I found. This means that a great deal of the bad wine that tourist report being served is not really grape wine and may be a blend of a little Chinese grape wine and a lot of imported bulk wine of undetermined origin. Rules get bent and outright fraud is not uncommon, I understand.

China has about 450 wine producers, which is approximately the number here in Washington State. The industry is highly concentrated with four wineries accounting for 60 percent of domestic production and sales. The big four are Great Wall, Dragon Seal, Changyu and Huadong. Foreign partnerships are common, giving Chinese winemakers access to international technology and expertise. The French multinational Pernod Ricard helped create Dragon Seal in 1987, for example, and Seagrams and Remy Martin have also been involved in joint ventures.

If the quality of the large scale wineries is disappointing, as many tourists report, the reason can be found in the supply chain. Wine is only as good as the grapes that go into it, or so growers tell me, and the grape supply situation in China is difficult. Most of the wine grapes are grown by families that lease about an acre of land from their local agricultural commune. That acre is tyically divided into four or five small plots that are planted with different crops so as to minimize risk. One or perhaps two of the plots may be wine grapes in the vineyard regions. So vineyard scale is impossibly small -- smaller even than in the south of France.

These small growers insist on calling the shots, which is natural since they are so dependent upon the success of their tiny farms. The wine producers have no control over what these hundreds of thousands of micro-vineyards produce, how they are cropped, and when the grapes are picked. Researchers suggest that the grapes are chosen and grown to maximize quantity not quality and that the grapes are picked as soon as possible to minimize risk of poor weather than could destroy the crop. So small crops of flavorful fully ripe grapes -- the winemaker's dream -- that's not going to happen in a typical Chinese vineyard. One study I found suggested that the grapes sell for as little as $80 a ton.

There is not much incentive for individual growers to sacrifice quantity for quality because their grapes are sold by weight to agents who lump together fruit from dozens or hundreds of individual growers. Good fruit would quickly get mixed with inferior fruit, so why pay more? The local agents often then resell the fruit to regional agents who sell again to the large winemakers. You can just imagine the condition of the fruit by the time it finally gets to the winemaking facility having passed through so many hands. This system is worse than the European cooperatives I have read about (and I didn't think anything could be worse than that).

Wine is sold in all sorts of ways. The Changyu website offers to let me buy wine by the barrel, which is perhaps what I would do if I owned a restaurant or a village drinks shop where I could decant the wine into bottles, jugs, or any other available container. Economists who study the Chinese wine market are increasingly focusing on supermarkets as a growing distribution vector. Partly I think this is because grocery store sales of wine are increasing, but also I think because these economists are interested in the potential for foreign wine imports. I don't think relatively expensive French or California wines have much chance of penetrating the traditional bulk distribution system where a lot of Chinese wine goes, so supermarkets are their best bet. Supermarkets may also eventually play an important role in educating Chinese consumers about wine in general and foreign wine in particular.

A small number of boutique winemakers have appeared, often financed by Hong Kong Chinese families and using international "flying winemaker" expertise. This is the basic story of my Grace Vineyard Cabernet Franc. Hong Kong businessman C.K. Chan invested USD 7 million to build a French-style Chateau. He hired Bordeaux winemaker Gerard Colin to supervise production full time. Output is now more than 40,000 cases. My bottle of reserve wine says that it is estate bottled from grapes grown on the estate and this may suggest why Grace Vineyard wines are often rated the best in China: control of the supply chain. If Grace controls the quality of the grapes then they can better control the quality of the wine. People say that Grace Vineyards is the best French wine made in China. I'm looking forward to trying it.

The bottom line is that the future of wine in China is difficult to predict. Surely wine consumption will grow as China gets richer and Chinese adopt more western consumption habits. Wine production will grow, too, and quality will rise as better technology is adopted. But it will be interesting to how quickly Chinese consumers accept dry western grape wines after their long experience with mixed fruit wines. And it will be interesting to see how quickly the quality of grapes can be raised.

It seems to me that the biggest barriers to quality wine are not in the stores or even in the habit of mixing red wine and Coke. The biggest problem remains the sorry state of rural Chinese agriculture -- a good reminder that wine is fundamentally a product of the soil.

Note: Special thanks to Brian West for bringing wine back from China where he was teaching with a University of Montana law school program. Thanks as well to Judy Leissner, who runs Grace Vineyard, for her assistance in locating Grace Vineyard products. Click here to view an interview with Judy about running a family wine business in China.

Special Note (added 1/13/2008). Click here to read an interview with Judy Leissner on the a blog called The Grape Wall of China, which is a good resource on the changing Chinese wine industry. Thanks to Jim Boyce (a.k.a. Beijing Boyce) for this link.

The End of Cheap Wine?

It is becoming increasingly clear that a golden age of sorts (for American wine drinkers) is coming to an end. Good quality wine has been amazingly affordable for the last several years and New World wine consumption has risen as a result.

This is changing (or has already changed, as Jancis Robinson writes in Saturday's Financial Times) and a quick look at the economics of the wine market explains how and why.

The demand for wine in the United States has increased for a number of reasons. Studies that show that moderate consumption of wine (especially red wine) is healthful gave consumers license to experiment with table wines. The existence of Two Buck Chuck (the Charles Shaw wines sold at Trader Joe's stores) and other value brands made this experimentation affordable.

The increasing emphasis on wine brands helped demand grow by making the wine purchase itself somewhat less mysterious. The wine aisle is the most complex choice space in any grocery store -- there are more options at more price points than anywhere else. Brands reduce uncertainty and so encourage consumption. The enormous success of [Yellow Tail] brand wine from Australia is testament to this fact. Costco, the nation's largest wine retailer, has used limited selection and its Kirkland Signature own-brand wine to achieve spectacular results.

The demand for wine has not just increased it has also evolved as many consumers have moved to higher quality (or higher price,anyway) and developed specialized wine expertise. Wine is more than a beverage, it is a lifestyle for many people who collect wines, take wine tourist vacations and subscribe to wine publications such as Wine Spectator or The Wine Advocate and read the wine columns now found in many newspapers. There is a pretty steep learning curve when it comes to wine. Knowing more about wine and having more experience with it increases the pleasure that wine provides and makes further learning more efficient. In economic terms, the specific investment in wine knowledge makes the demand for wine more inelastic -- less sensitive to changes in price since buyers are less likely to switch from wine to other products or beverages where they have less expertise.

The supply of wine has also changed to create higher prices. The falling U.S. dollar has increased the cost of imported wine, which contributes to rising domestic prices both directly, as those costs are passed along to consumers, and indirectly, as higher import prices allow domestic producers to raise price, too. I don't think that we have seen the full pass-through effect of the exchange rate changes yet, so expect dollar-driven price increases to continue.

But domestic prices would have increased even without the dollar's decline. Wine buyers in recent years benefited from a global surplus of wine grapes that drove down price and pushed up quality. Faced with accumulated surpluses that sometimes amounted to a year or more of sales, winegrowers held back on expansion plans (except for hot varietals like Pinot Noir). Demand has slowly grown into the existing supply and may soon exceed it for some wine types. Falling prices due to surpluses are coming to an end and rising prices seem likely, even in Australia where drought and disease have further reduced production. The new EU wine regime, if it is effective, should further reduce wine surpluses and tighten supply.

When you combine these factors along with a few others, such as growing interest in wine in Asia, the result is a new market environment and it will be interesting to see what happens next. The latest round of wine magazines seem to take higher prices in stride. The Wine Advocate reports that the cellar door price of California cult wine Screaming Eagle is now $500 per bottle -- if you can get some -- and a long list of wines are listed with prices above $100 or $200. Wine Spectator and the wine columnists in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times all seem to be struggling to keep a lid on their definition of an inexpensive or good value wine -- a $12 or $15 or even $20 ceiling no longer provides much choice! You can still buy cheap wine, but the good value bargains are disappearing.

It will be interesting to see how the American wine culture, which has been built in part on good quality at low prices, copes with this new world of wine. In the meantime, enjoy those bargains and good values when you find them, but don't count on your good fortune lasting forever.

Bottom's Up at Fosters

An article in today's (9/27/07) Wall Street Journal suggests that the era of wine surpluses, both in the world and especially in Australia (see previous blog entry below) may be coming to an end. The world's second largest winemaker has started to raise prices on its premium wine after a long period of discounting and drastic bulk sales. Maybe this market cycle has finally hit bottom and prices are on their way up.

Most people I talk to assume that Gallo is the world's largest winemaker and have no firm notion of who could be number two. But in this era of growing brand power the #1 winemaker is Constellation Brands and Foster's is number two. Fosters makes a lot of wine, but it is really a "drinks" company more than a wine company (to use a distinction that Craggy Range winemaker Steve Smith once explained to me). Fosters manages a long list of brands, only a small sample of which are shown in this photo. They sell branded wines, beers, spirits and even Oragina soft drinks and various juices and sparkling waters. If you are thirsty and want a drink, Foster's is ready to serve your needs.

Foster's lager beer is the brand you might most obviously associate with this company, but its list of wine brands is long and includes Australian wines such as Penfolds, Rosemount Estate, Wolf Blass and the Little Penguin as well as Beringer and Stag's Leap from the U.S., Matua Valley from New Zealand and Fonsecca Port and Gabbiano Chianti. More than 60 wine brands are distributed internationally, reaching from the budget bottom shelves of the wine display clear to the top.

The WSJ article reports that Foster's raised its wine prices by between 4% and 11% in August and the higher prices have stuck -- they haven't hit strong consumer resistance or been undercut by competitors. I think it might be too early for Foster's to declare victory, but rising prices do suggest that the wine glut has come to an end and some shortages may be emerging.

Foster's has apparently finished selling off its inventory of surplus unbranded wine stocks, which are called "cleanskins" in Australia in reference to an international espionage term for an agent of unknown origin. (See this website for an example of Australian cleanskins marketing.) These discount sales dragged down Foster's earnings.

Now, with the prospect of a drought-reduced 2008 vintage following drought problems in 2007, the trend of falling prices may finally be coming to an end. I am skeptical, however, because it seems to me that Australian wines face a lot of competition around the world and it may be difficult to raise prices in this market environment, with surplus stocks still available, for now at least, from other parts of the wine world.

Bottling the 2005 at Fielding Hills Winery

I spent the weekend after commencement in Wenatchee, Washington helping Mike and Karen Wade and their friends bottle the 2005 vintage of Fielding Hills. I got to drink some great wine, meet some wonderful people and learn more about the wine business. Here are some photos (courtesy of Dave Seago) and some observations.

The Wades are orchardists and fruit distributors in Wenatchee, which is the heart of Washington Apple country. They got the wine bug a few years ago and now run an 800 case operation from a building near their home, overlooking the Columbia River. The grapes come from vines they own near Matawa on the Wahluke Slope, further down the Columbia. They make reds -- Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc and a blend called RiverBend red. These wines are not easy to find (remember: only 800 cases total) but they have received rave notices in the wine press: Wine Enthusiast rated them all between 91/100 and 95/100 points in its December 2006 assessment of the 2004 vintage. They are all good, the magazines and web sites say, the only question is which one is best.

I know the Wades through their daughter Robin who is one of my students at the University of Puget Sound. She knows about my interest in the wine business, so when they needed volunteer labor for the annual bottling weekend, she knew who to call.

I have taken dozens of tours of large wine-making operations, so it was interesting to see the process first-hand and on a very human scale. I hope the photos capture something of the process. We bottled the Cab, a blend featuring 76% Cabernet Sauvignon, on Friday afternoon. The first step was get the appropriate barrels of wine out of storage and to carefully pump the right proportions of the right wines into a large stainless blending tank. From there, the wine moved to the assembly line, where I worked alongside about a dozen of the Wades' friends and neighbors.

The bottling process reminded me of Adam Smith's famous pin factory example of the division of labor. One person (1) brought in pallets that contained cases of empty wine bottles. A second person (2) removed the bottles from the cases onto a table so that another worker (3) could invert them over a nitrogen supply, which removed any oxygen. The bottles were then (4) filled with wine on a six-bottle machine (see photo), then corked (5). A foil closure was then placed over the cork top (6) and secured firmly using a surprisingly nasty electric device (that was my job -- #7). Then the bottles were wiped down (workers 8 and 9) before going through a label operation (10), being loaded back into boxes (11) that were sealed and stacked (12) and then moved out on the pallets they came in on. It took us about six hours to bottle 200 cases of Cabernet Sauvignon on Friday afternoon. We did 150 cases of the RiverBend Blend in four hours on Saturday morning. My reward? Wonderful family-style meals with my co-workers and one bottle of each of the wines I worked on, autographed by my fellow volunteers.

One thing that you can't see in the photos is the fuel that kept the volunteers going: it was the wine we were bottling, drawn straight from the barrel. Good juice, in my opinion. Can't wait to taste it when it's had a bit of time in the bottle. (Expected release date: October 2007.)

One thing I learned from this is that although 800 cases of wine is a tiny operation by the scale of today's wine business today, it is still a very significant investment of time and energy. I thought we would never come to the end up those 200 cases (2400 individual bottles) of Cabernet on Friday afternoon!

Because they have been so successful, both in terms of wine quality and wine economics, the Wades are planning to take the next step -- to expand production from 800 cases to 2400 cases. This is a big step, since the business model changes with the higher volumes. Family labor plus volunteer help at key points works fine for wineries producing 1000 cases or less, but a bigger operation means hired help and higher fixed costs. The marketing end changes, too. The Wades prefer to sell most of their wine direct to customers rather than to discount it in order to get it into wine shops and restaurants. Given their stellar ratings, they have a good opportunity to build a "wine club" list that will automatically take most of their output, matching demand and supply very efficiently. Building a bigger winery will mean matching a bigger demand to their bigger supply.

Mike Wade told me what it takes to make good wine -- it's in the fruit, he said. The economics of wine is in the market -- matching demand and supply. I would say that the Wades understand both the fruit side of their operation and the market side, too.